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Global stocks hit record highs after Biden wins US presidency in historic vote, but political uncertainty is making the dollar a 'lousy' safe-haven

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  • Global stocks jumped on Monday as investors bet President-elect Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory would generate greater economic and foreign policy stability.
  • But analysts largely expect the US dollar to decline further due to a combination of factors including more stimulus.
  • The dollar looks like a “lousy safe-haven given the US political and economic uncertainty, which looms ominously,” said Axi’s Stephen Innes.
  • Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell has appeared to be more open to a stimulus deal before the end of the year.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Global stocks rose to record highs on Monday after Joe Biden secured a historic presidency in the 2020 US election last week. 

Biden won more votes than any candidate in history in terms of the popular vote, according to Deutsche Bank analysts, and is projected to win by the second-most decisive result since 2000. The race for the White House, which began on November 3, was one of the closest in living memory, but resulted in Biden capturing enough votes to be declared the winner.

Futures tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones rose between 1.3% and 2%, pointing to a robust rally later in the day, when regular trading resumes. The MSCI global stocks index of developed and emerging markets climbed 0.6% on Monday to its highest ever level.

President Donald Trump is still refusing to concede and has said “the simple fact is this election is far from over.”  Trump has accused Biden of “rushing to falsely pose as the winner” after several news outlets projected the former vice president to have won the election. No other president in modern US history has challenged American democracy in the ways Trump has. 

The US dollar looks like a “lousy safe-haven given the US political and economic uncertainty, which looms ominously,” said Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi.

A Biden presidency is expected to be more in favor of global trade and further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve is seen as inevitable.

Read More: Morgan Stanley says to load up on these 10 stocks featured on the firm’s ‘buy list,’ which has dominated the broader market this year

Contrary to a number of predictions, the Democrats did not secure control of the upper chamber of Congress, although, as with the White House, the result was too close to call at this point. Two unusual runoff races in Georgia on January 5th will determine which party controls the Senate over the next two years.

Since election day, Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell has appeared to be more open to a stimulus deal before the end of the year.

“This shift in tone increases the chances for a lame duck package and could hint at the potential for a somewhat larger stimulus deal than they originally thought without a Blue Wave,” Deutsche Bank analysts said.

The bank’s economists retained their current baseline assumption of a roughly $750 billion fiscal package legislated by the first-quarter, even though they were previously worried about this in case of a split government.

“With more limited fiscal stimulus on the way, monetary policy can help extend post-election rallies in risk sentiment, creating a bridge to a post-vaccine environment,” Innes said.

The US reported new cases surpassing 100,000 over the past 24 hours, up 8.2% in the last week. The nation is on track to set a record for coronavirus hospitalizations.

Elsewhere in Europe, the FTSE 100 rose 1.4%, Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.7%, and Germany’s DAX climbed 1.9%.

In Asia, China’s October exports rose by an impressive 11.4%, according to data released Saturday. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite rose 1.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.2%, and Japan’s Nikkei rose 2%.

Read More: ‘It is going to be very, very bad’: Legendary investor Jim Rogers says the US debt load is creating a prime environment for a collapse — and warns the next market blow off will be worse than the Financial Crisis’ 50% decline

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